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Bowl Watch - Week 11

That Miami game was anything but fun. However, entering the Miami game most computers gave Louisville roughly a 25% of beating the Hurricanes. So even with a lopsided loss, very little has changed from how the computers and media feel about Louisville’s post-season chances.

Here’s last week’s win total probability projection by SP+ Projected total: 6.935 wins.

(Reddit user u/externaltangents
(Reddit user u/externaltangents
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And here’s SP+’s win total probability after the Virginia game. Projected total: 6.569 wins.

While Louisville’s percentage chances of beating Syracuse and Kentucky went down, their chances of beating NCST are virtually unchanged.

With less games left to play and the first iteration of the CFP Rankings in from last week, the projected locations are beginning to narrow. Hope y’all like crab cakes, tex-mex, and… tires?

ESPN:

Military Bowl Presented by Northrop Grumman (Bonagura) – Louisville vs. Navy

Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium, Annapolis, Maryland

Dec. 27, noon, ESPN

Military Bowl Presented by Northrop Grumman (Schlabach) – Louisville vs. Navy

Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium, Annapolis, Maryland

Dec. 27, noon, ESPN

Stadium (Brett McMurphy):

Military Bowl Presented by Northrop Grumman – Louisville vs. Cincinnati

Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium, Annapolis, Maryland

Dec. 27, noon, ESPN

Banner Society (formerly SBNation):

Quick Lane Bowl – Louisville vs. Toledo

Ford Field, Detroit

Dec. 26, 8 p.m., ESPN

Sporting News:

Quick Lane Bowl – Louisville vs. Michigan State

Ford Field, Detroit

Dec. 26, 8 p.m., ESPN

College Football News:

Military Bowl Presented by Northrop Grumman – Louisville vs. Navy

Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium, Annapolis, Maryland

Dec. 27, noon, ESPN

Athlon:

Military Bowl Presented by Northrop Grumman – Louisville vs. Navy

Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium, Annapolis, Maryland

Dec. 27, noon, ESPN

CBS (Jerry Palm):

New Era Pinstripe Bowl – Louisville vs. Illinois

Yankee Stadium, New York

Dec. 27, 3:20 p.m., ESPN

Bleacher Report:

Military Bowl Presented by Northrop Grumman – Louisville vs. Navy

Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium, Annapolis, Maryland

Dec. 27, noon, ESPN

The Athletic (Stewart Mandel):

Walk-On’s Independence Bowl – Louisville vs. Marshall

Independence Stadium, Shreveport, Louisiana

USA Today: (as of Oct 29)

Sun Bowl – Louisville vs. Arizona State

Sun Bowl, El Paso, Texas

Dec. 31, 2 p.m., CBS

Sports Illustrated: (as of Nov.6)

Sun Bowl – Louisville vs. Stanford

Sun Bowl, El Paso, Texas

Dec. 31, 2 p.m., CBS



3 games left, 1 game to go.

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