Bowl Watch - Week 11
That Miami game was anything but fun. However, entering the Miami game most computers gave Louisville roughly a 25% of beating the Hurricanes. So even with a lopsided loss, very little has changed from how the computers and media feel about Louisville’s post-season chances.
Here’s last week’s win total probability projection by SP+ Projected total: 6.935 wins.
And here’s SP+’s win total probability after the Virginia game. Projected total: 6.569 wins.
While Louisville’s percentage chances of beating Syracuse and Kentucky went down, their chances of beating NCST are virtually unchanged.
With less games left to play and the first iteration of the CFP Rankings in from last week, the projected locations are beginning to narrow. Hope y’all like crab cakes, tex-mex, and… tires?
ESPN:
Military Bowl Presented by Northrop Grumman (Bonagura) – Louisville vs. Navy
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium, Annapolis, Maryland
Dec. 27, noon, ESPN
Military Bowl Presented by Northrop Grumman (Schlabach) – Louisville vs. Navy
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium, Annapolis, Maryland
Dec. 27, noon, ESPN
Stadium (Brett McMurphy):
Military Bowl Presented by Northrop Grumman – Louisville vs. Cincinnati
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium, Annapolis, Maryland
Dec. 27, noon, ESPN
Banner Society (formerly SBNation):
Quick Lane Bowl – Louisville vs. Toledo
Ford Field, Detroit
Dec. 26, 8 p.m., ESPN
Quick Lane Bowl – Louisville vs. Michigan State
Ford Field, Detroit
Dec. 26, 8 p.m., ESPN
Military Bowl Presented by Northrop Grumman – Louisville vs. Navy
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium, Annapolis, Maryland
Dec. 27, noon, ESPN
Military Bowl Presented by Northrop Grumman – Louisville vs. Navy
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium, Annapolis, Maryland
Dec. 27, noon, ESPN
CBS (Jerry Palm):
New Era Pinstripe Bowl – Louisville vs. Illinois
Yankee Stadium, New York
Dec. 27, 3:20 p.m., ESPN
Military Bowl Presented by Northrop Grumman – Louisville vs. Navy
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium, Annapolis, Maryland
Dec. 27, noon, ESPN
The Athletic (Stewart Mandel):
Walk-On’s Independence Bowl – Louisville vs. Marshall
Independence Stadium, Shreveport, Louisiana
USA Today: (as of Oct 29)
Sun Bowl – Louisville vs. Arizona State
Sun Bowl, El Paso, Texas
Dec. 31, 2 p.m., CBS
Sports Illustrated: (as of Nov.6)
Sun Bowl – Louisville vs. Stanford
Sun Bowl, El Paso, Texas
Dec. 31, 2 p.m., CBS
3 games left, 1 game to go.